The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary triggered a chain of reactions that led to World War 1, which the globe had not witnessed until then. First, Austria-Hungary gave Serbia an ultimatum, which led to the declaration of war on July 28, 1914.
With alliances from both sides chipping in, Germany declared war on Russia on August 1, followed by declarations against France on August 3, and the invasion of Belgium, prompting Britain to declare war on Germany.
Similarly, the triggering point for World War II is widely recognised as Germany’s invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939. This invasion violated the Treaty of Versailles and prompted Britain and France to declare war on Germany in 1939. However, several long-term causes set the stage for this conflict.
Cut to 2024, the situation is making one question whether the world is heading for World War 3. Especially in the last few weeks, this question is lingering in the minds of people across the globe.
As outgoing US President US Biden’s administration gave long-range American missiles to Kyiv, the situation in the war between Russia and Ukraine has gone from bad to worse.
Biden Administration Fuelling Tensions?
As President Biden’s term nears its end, his decision to allocate tens of billions of dollars to support Kyiv’s war effort has drawn sharp criticism from Trump allies. The decision to arm Ukraine with long-range missiles is seen as crossing a critical line that Russian President Vladimir Putin had firmly established. Biden’s approval of Ukraine’s use of American-made weapons to strike Russian territory has added fuel to the fire.
Donald Trump Jr., son of the incoming President, took to Twitter to express his disapproval over the development. “The military-industrial complex seems desperate to spark World War III before my father can step in to negotiate peace and save lives,” he remarked.
Political commentator Glenn Beck voiced similar concerns, labelling Biden’s decision as reckless. “Allowing Ukraine to fire American long-range missiles into Russia—knowing it crosses Putin’s nuclear red line—is a direct risk to global security. With only 62 days left in office, this is an impeachable act,” he argued.
Has World War 3 Already Started?
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, told Newsweek in October that World War 3 is underway. Citing the Ukraine conflict and the Middle East crisis, he claimed, “World War III has already begun. You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries,”
Experts say that the smaller conflicts will lead to bigger global issues even as conflicts are being witnessed in Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.
According to Olevs Nikers, President, Baltic Security Foundation; Senior Fellow, Jamestown Foundation, the world is currently in the “very final stages of a pre-World War III situation”. “In my opinion, this is still kind of a Cold War, at extremely high but still tolerable temperatures, which is about to “boil” anytime soon if not prevented.
The actual war in Europe (Ukraine) still is a regional conflict. At the same time, parties of eventual global conflict are clearly looking at the worst scenario in perspective.” Although the global powers are not directly involved in the wars, things can change at any time on issues like Russia’s aggression and the China-Taiwan conflict.
However, David Stevenson, Emeritus Professor of International History, London School of Economics and Political Science, is of the belief that “characteristics of a new Cold War have existed between Russia and the NATO countries for several years.”
He points out that the West is aware of the fact that Russia, China, North Korea and Iran by its side and involving any of the countries with any of these countries could lead to the issue becoming global.
Edward Newman, Professor of International Security, Co-Director, Centre for Global Security Challenges, University of Leeds, said the publication downplays the possibility of large-scale military conflict between major powers. “Barring very serious miscalculation, the incentives to initiate open military conflict between Russia, China, the U.S. and other NATO countries are still low, and the costs are very high and recognised as such.
What is more likely is an escalation of hybrid war tactics: A combination of conventional and irregular techniques involving sabotage, disruption, infiltration, and consolidation of spheres of influence by coercion and interference,” he notes.
What If the United States of America Started World War III?
A report released on July 29 this year by a bipartisan commission paints a less optimistic picture for the US. Chaired by Jane Harman, a former Democratic congresswoman, alongside Eric Edelman, a former defense official under President George W. Bush, the report highlights the decline of America’s military dominance.
Is The US Losing Its Iron Grip?
It warns that the nation faces the gravest threats to its security since 1945, with many Americans unaware of the scale or urgency of the challenges.
An earlier published report had highlighted that China is the most serious problem as it is outpacing the US in defence production and might invade Taiwan by 2027.
The report warned about the deeper links between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. The transfer of arms to technology cannot be ignored.
“Major war would affect the life of every American in ways we can only begin to imagine,” the commission said.
Why America Is Not Ready For Big War?
Future wars could result in far greater casualties than recent Western conflicts. Army simulations predict 50,000 to 55,000 casualties in large-scale battles, with 10,000 to 15,000 fatalities. While the commission doesn’t call for reinstating the draft, it raises concerns about the sustainability of the all-volunteer military force.
Years of reduced defense spending have left the U.S. unprepared for a major conflict with China or a multi-front war involving China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Defense spending has dropped from 17% of GDP in 1952 to just 3% today, raising concerns about whether current investments are enough to meet growing threats.
War games show the US could run out of key munitions, like anti-ship missiles, within days of a conflict with China, and it could take years to replenish stockpiles. Despite these challenges, experts stress that military aid to Ukraine should continue, as a direct war with China or Russia would be even more costly.
What Makes The Situation Worse?
Recruitment struggles are making matters worse. In 2023, the Army, Navy, and Air Force all missed their enlistment goals. The Army, for example, is at its smallest size since 1940, with 445,000 active-duty soldiers—41,000 fewer than in 2021.
The reserve forces are also shrinking, with the National Guard and Reserves in decline since 2020. This leaves the US with fewer troops available for large-scale wars or emergencies.
