As the tensions between Ukraine and Russia are on the rise, there is an important and timely question that is lingering around everyone’s mind- Can Europe defend itself from Russia without America? For decades, Europe has relied on the United States, especially through NATO for much of its security. However, the 2nd presidential term of Donald Trump suggests that he might withdraw from NATO as during his first term as president Donald Trump threatened to leave NATO, which, according to some officials, will lead to lowering the power of Europe. Due to the growing tensions with Russia, there is more pressure on Europe to step up and protect itself.
After Ukraine slowed its counter-offensive move against Russia last summer, some officials warned that Russia’s victory over Ukraine might be followed by targeting the NATO countries. Officials issued warnings that the attack could occur soon but Russia has always used strong and threatening language including hints about its nuclear weapons to intimidate other nations and move towards its agenda. However, the slow decision-making of Europe and its dependence on external powers have always raised doubts about its military strength to defend itself. So, in this article, we will discuss everything about whether European countries are capable or not to protect themselves without America.
Growing Challenges Faced By Europe
The worsening position of Ukraine in the war, the growing aggression of Russia, and the uncertainty surrounding America’s support to Ukraine under the influence of Donald Trump, all are increasing the challenges of Europe. The concern is not only that America might stop helping Ukraine in the ongoing war, but it might pull back its hand from protecting Europe altogether. If America withdraws from NATO and steps away, Europe would need more than just higher defense spending. There will be a need to rebuild its arms industry, build its own nuclear defense system, and improve the coordination between military forces.
Though there are some European nations who have started working towards increasing manufacturing of arms and weapons, their efforts might fall short in time to help Ukraine. It is said that if Ukraine loses the war against Russia, it will give confidence to Russia and will weaken the morale of the West, although NATO might not be under the radar. The head of NATO’s international military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, has said that there is no immediate threat to NATO. However, some experts, such as Denmark’s defence minister, have warned that in the next 3-5 years, Vladimir Putin might challenge the unity of NATO by testing Article 5, the mutual defence agreement.
Europe Is Making Efforts To Become Self-Sufficient But It Is Still Far From Defending Itself Without America
Since a very long time, Europe has been making efforts to become more self-reliant in defense, especially in the wake of reduced US support, which has long been a key player in its security by way of NATO. The European nations are thinking about defending themselves on their own since Donald Trump hinted at withdrawing from NATO, raised questions about its significance, and publicly sided with Vladimir Putin. Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, once talked about the concept of strategic autonomy and since then, it has gained momentum with European nations increasing their defense budgets.
In 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine for the 1st time, 3 European nations met NATO’s defense spending target which is 2% of their GDP. However, in 2024, it is assumed that a total of 18 countries will meet the target and the total defense spending of Europe will reach approximately $380 billion, which is similar to Russia. However, the increased spending may be a good thing, but there are a lot of challenges faced by Europe such as insufficient combat power. At last year’s NATO summit, the leaders shared the national defense plans which means Europe needs to increase its military capability.
Also, they need to spend 50% more on defense, which is about 3% of their GDP. Currently, only Poland and Greece are doing this. But it is said that even with more money, the European nations have just a few soldiers and almost all European armies struggle to meet their recruitment targets. An American general stated in a conference that most countries in Europe could only field one full-strength brigade. Also, these countries lack the things needed to fight a battle for a longer period such as satellites, drones, staff officers trained to run large headquarters, and logistics capabilities. This is because Europe depends heavily on the USA’s intelligence for all these.
Further, it is said that the countries often compete instead of cooperating which puts their resources to waste. The disagreements between big defense countries such as France, Italy, Spain, and Germany on how contracts should be split among arms-makers also bring a lot of challenges. Discussions are also rising because Europe has manpower problems because many countries struggle to recruit soldiers which is again a big challenge. Some countries in Europe are considering bringing back the policy of mandatory military service for their citizens so that their manpower problems can be cured.
The head of the British Army, General Sir Patrick Sanders stated that preparing for war in the Western countries requires the effort of the entire nation and not just the military. Now, Europe majorly relies on the USA’s nuclear weapons for its protection. But if Donald Trump withdraws from NATO, then Europe might need to rely on France and Britain for nuclear arsenals and this might not be enough to defend itself from Russia. Experts have revealed that there are only 500 warheads between them as compared to America’s 5000 and Russia’s 6000.
According to experts, though Europe is making changes but it is still not capable of defending itself without America against Russia. It needs to solve its manpower and military challenges, focus on better arms spending, and require coordination among the European nations as all of these might give Russia an advantage over them.
Difficulties In Nuclear Defense And Europe’s Dependence On USA
It is widely known that European countries heavily rely on the nuclear defense of the United States, especially for future warhead designs and missile supplies, though the nuclear weapons of Britain are assigned to NATO. This is so because the Nuclear Planning Group of NATO outlines the policy on how nuclear weapons should be used by the countries. If America cuts off its ties and cooperation, the nuclear forces of Britain might become weaker and not last long. On the other hand, the nuclear deterrence of France is independent from the rules of NATO and is not a part of the Nuclear Planning Group, but still, the country contributes to its security by merely existing. Though the nuclear issues of NATO have always been not-so-important, but in the last 2 years, there have been wider discussions on nuclear planning by the alliance.
Further, there have been discussions going on about how France and Britain will step up their defense capabilities if America decides to pull back its defense from Europe. In this scenario, Europe is considering a stronger nuclear deterrent but it gives rise to the doubt of trust and whether these countries have the power to take this responsibility. In the past, there were attempts made to create a shared European nuclear strategy but it failed because France and Britain were not ready to share control of their nuclear weapons. France has only offered cooperation in a limited sense such as discussing nuclear uses with the other countries and involving them in its operations, but solely under its leadership.
Next, in NATO there have been command and control issues. The top structure of NATO, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, which is always an American, mainly handles the decision-making and military planning. But if the US leaves NATO, there will be problems as to who will handle this role because the military headquarters of the EU is inexperienced and too small and will also exclude non-EU NATO members such as Canada, Turkey, and Norway. One solution to this is that Europeans should inherit the NATO structures and keep the alliance alive without the USA and fill the chosen institution with educated officials.
America’s handling of NATO’s top military position shows that it has always helped in the prevention of disagreements. Some experts have said that if the US reduces its involvement, it can still provide aid for European security and European countries can also manage to give military support to Ukraine. Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of NATO has said that Europe does not have the power to defend itself without America. Since 80% of the defense spending comes from the US, UK, and Canada, European nations lack resources to match the capabilities of NATO. Therefore, this means that the defense structure of Europe relies on America’s leadership and if the country leaves NATO, Europe might face big hurdles.
Disagreements Among European Nations Concerning Ukraine And Russia’s War
Since the war between Ukraine and Russia started, there have been many views and opinions made. Also, there have growing disagreements among the European nations about how to help Ukraine and maintain their political relationship with Russia. This year, the USA approved a big aid package worth $60.8 billion for Ukraine so that they could protect themselves from Russia. The help included arms and weapons, but it was delayed legally, which gave Russia an advantage. French President, Emmanuel Macron suggested that the troops of NATO should help Ukraine directly.
Though some countries supported this, but others like Slovakia and Hungary strongly opposed this. Hungary is one of those countries that prefers to avoid a fight with Russia but its population is reluctant to support Ukraine. On the other hand, Petr Pavel, the president of Czech, did not hesitate to support Ukraine and sourced 800,000 shells from the global market. He also urged other countries to provide help. Pavel also highlighted that Europe should increase the production of defense supplies, and strengthen European armies. Therefore, disagreements in Europe are a key factor that implies that it is not capable of defending itself without America.
US Is Significantly Declining Its Role In Europe’s Defense
In his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump threatened that the countries that do not meet the defense spending targets might not receive America’s protection or he might leave NATO altogether. This has increased the worries of Europe as it heavily relied on America for its protection. Further, the USA is also increasingly shifting its focus on competition with China and the Indo-Pacific region rather than Europe, regardless of who is the President. This can clearly be seen in the budget of the USA because now, more funds are directed towards fighting China. Since the Cold War, the number of American troops in Europe has decreased. Though it increased when Russia invaded Ukraine, but the number remained below the Cold War level. On the basis of this, Europe should prepare for the future as it is likely that the US might pull back from the defense of Europe anytime.
Europe Should Prepare To Strengthen Its Role In NATO
The experts who are in support of Europe becoming self-sufficient, have stated that Europe should develop a European Pillar so that its position is enhanced. This will make NATO more strong while the US is still a member, will show that Europe is serious about sharing the defense and military responsibilities, and will also prepare Europe in case America ends its involvement. Further, Europe should prepare to take on its own responsibility because even a US president who strongly supports Europe might have to pull defense forces away if America gets involved in a battle elsewhere, such as the war in Asia. Mr Daniel Fiott from Elcano Royal Institute has stated that if America leaves NATO completely, then the European Union should be given a seat on NATO’s North Atlantic Council, which is its main decision-making body. Also, he suggested that the positions of NATO’s secretary general and EU’s president should be combined.
