In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had predicted that there would be 17 to 25 named storms this year, which is higher than normal. In 2024, Sara is the 18th named storm to develop in the Atlantic.
Why do We Have So Many Storms Nowadays?
This year, the ocean is warmer, which is why forecasters expect more storms, as the warm water helps storms strengthen more rapidly. This year, El Niño is weakening, creating better conditions for storms to form. Without El Niño, the calm air needed for hurricanes to form is more likely, making it easier for powerful storms to develop.
Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic Hurricane Season lasts from June 1 to November 30 and most storms usually happen between mid-August and mid-October. Every year, on average there are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major storms.
Sara, which was previously called Tropical Depression 19, a tropical storm formed in the Caribbean Sea on Thursday, intensified as it travelled westward on a path toward Central America.
Sara makes landfall in Honduras
On late Thursday, Sara made landfall in northern Honduras and is lashing Central America with ‘life-threatening’ torrential rains.
Sara sustained winds of 50 mph
It has sustained winds of 50 mph, and forecasters warned it could strengthen if its centre remained offshore. The Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Sara was about 105 miles north-northwest of the Nicaragua-Honduras border and 105 miles east-southeast of the Honduras island of Guanaja, moving west at 10 mph. When its winds reach at least 39 mph, it is classified as a tropical storm.
Sara’s movement
The storm is expected to remain in the Caribbean through the weekend and shift into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, after which its path remain uncertain. As per CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan, most weather models suggest that it might weaken after it reaches the Gulf of Mexico or Mexico, but several models still suggest that the storm could continue and head toward Florida.
Nolan advised that Florida residents should keep an eye on the forecast updates.
Sara’s projected path
According to Hurricane Centre, Sara was expected to move closer to Honduras’ northern coast by early Saturday and reach Belize by Sunday.
Due to the storm, catastrophic rainfall could impact parts of Central America. Forecasters warned that 10-20 inches of heavy rainfall are expected and some areas might also get 30 inches.
“Life-threatening and potentially catastrophic” flash floods could impact Honduras and continue through the weekend. They also warned of mudslides, especially in the mountains on the northeastern coast of Honduras, near Sierra La Esperanza, and these conditions are expected to continue through the weekend.
Other parts of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua might also receive 5 to 10 inches of rainfall and some places might get up to 15 inches.
Governments issue warnings
Governments across Central America have issued various warnings, and people are preparing to take responsibility for Sara’s impact.
Local officials urged residents to secure their homes and prepare emergency supplies in case evacuation orders are given as Sara, after passing through Honduras, is expected to move towards Guatemala.
Red Alerts Issued
A red alert has been declared for Honduras’ northern region, and other countries have put emergency measures in place to prepare for potentially catastrophic rainfall.
The Honduran emergency management agency (COPECO) has issued a red alert for four Caribbean departments—Islas de la Bahía, Atlántida, Colón, and Gracias a Dios—for 72 hours, urging evacuations from danger zones.
Warning for people to prepare for possible impact
Warnings have also been issued to people in Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, advising them to prepare for possible impacts from Sara early next week.
President Xiomara Castro’s advice for citizens
President Xiomara Castro took to X (previously Twitter) and stated that emergency services have been activated. She also advised citizens to pay attention to instructions.
Todas las instituciones que conforman SINAGER están activadas ante la emergencia y los daños que ya ocasionan las lluvias y el inminente impacto de la tormenta tropical Sara, que podría convertirse en un evento catastrófico.
La ciudadanía debe estar atenta a las instrucciones y…
— Xiomara Castro de Zelaya (@XiomaraCastroZ) November 14, 2024
Will Sara become hurricane?
It has to be noted that a tropical storm is considered a hurricane when its winds reach at least 74 mph, placing it in the Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. So, it is still uncertain if the tropical storm Sara will become a hurricane.
Will Sara hit Florida?
Some forecast models suggested that the storm, after entering the Gulf of Mexico might take a right-hand turn and head towards Florida by late next week, though the conditions can change quickly. Other models also showed that Sara could move into the central Gulf and possibly weaken.
How are predictions made?
To create “spaghetti plots” in order to predict the storm’s path, forecast models take the current weather conditions along with past data. Each model uses different calculations and the final forecast is based on what most models show.
People urged to follow regular updates on the storm
The hurricane center said that it is too early to predict what impact the storm could have on the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba next week. People, who stay in this area are advised to keep an eye on regular updates on the storm.
